From Yesterday’s Points to Tomorrow’s Promise — Dimension 01: Expected Points Engine

FPL is full of players who look right.

Last season’s points tell us what happened. The Expected Points Engine asks what could happen next.

For every player, we will estimate his likely FPL output over the coming Gameweeks, rather than judging him solely by reputation, ownership, or a single attractive fixture.

The past gives us evidence. The future is where the points are won.

The Hidden Ingredient

There is a little more behind that number.

Our Expected Points Engine will use a proprietary formula combining the signals we believe matter most. The exact formula stays hidden — the secret ingredient of our Champion Engine.

We will show you what the number means and why a player stands out.

The engine looks beyond GW1, considering expected output alongside fixtures, playing probability, injury situation, role, price, and the possibility of sustained returns.

That helps us distinguish between a tempting one-week punt and a player who could become a genuine five-Gameweek asset.

Who Stands Out?

Some names naturally begin to attract attention.

Erling Haaland, Bruno Fernandes, Bryan Mbeumo, João Pedro and Dominik Szoboszlai are obvious candidates because their roles, projected output and early fixtures give them a strong foundation.

But the Engine is also looking for the less obvious names.

Pascal Groß can become interesting through set pieces and penalties. Mamadou Sangaré represents the kind of lower-owned player we want to investigate when his minutes, defensive contributions and potential upside begin to align.

The point is not to predict a surprise for its own sake.

It is to find a player whose underlying opportunity is stronger than his popularity suggests.

Why This Dimension Matters

Look at 2024/25. Mohamed Salah finished with an extraordinary 344 FPL points. The lesson isn't simply buy Salah. It is that when elite opportunity, minutes, role and sustained output come together, expected production can become season-defining.

Bruno Fernandes provides another useful example. In 2025/26 he finished with 235 points despite Manchester United having a difficult season. His penalties, set pieces, creativity and remarkable availability meant his individual FPL potential could not simply be judged by his team's league position.

That is precisely what this dimension is trying to capture.

Not just who scored the most.

Not just who is being talked about.

But who has the strongest reasons to score next.

The First Piece of the Champion Engine...

Expected Points is only the beginning.

Once we have established a player's projected output, we place it against other dimensions.

Only then do we begin to understand whether a player truly belongs in a £100m squad.

The score stays hidden. The thinking behind it doesn't.

Next Dimension → Price Efficiency: If we know what a player might return, what are we actually paying for it?